Samvaad: A Conversation
Speak Your Voice! We'd love to hear your thoughts. Click on the "Comments" link at the end of each posting to make your voice heard!
Wednesday, April 28, 2004
Indian Elections - How does it look on April 28th, 2004
With two phases of the polling process over the exit polls are revealing what psephologists (experts in election analysis) should have discerned from the prevailing mood and the results from the 1999 results. In my opinion, the BJP had max'ed out 5 years ago. There was no way they could make dramatic gains if one looked at the state-by-state results. Given the anti-incumbency nature of Indian politics their over-achieving performance last time around should have, if anything, made them more cautious.
Looks like BJP and allies a.k.a the NDA will barely make the majority mark (272). That means cobbling up a coalition will require some new faces. These new faces will hold the key to India's forseeable political future. The TDP, currently a prominent member of the outgoing coalition, in Andhra Pradesh is heading towards disaster so at the moment the AIADMK (Jayalalitha) is the most prominent partner of the BJP. It is a little difficult to predict who the savior is going to be for the NDA coalition. Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party is a top candidate, in my opinion.
The most important number will be the raw strength the Congress party musters. If it hits the 150 mark on its own then it is a serious enough contender for the BJP to be really scared. By my analysis thus far I see them only gaining in strength from their dismal 114-seats vantage point. Dramatic gains in Andhra will help them. They will pick up single-digit seat gains in many other states as well.
I must end by saying that two more phases are still to go and if there is one thing to be weary of in a democracy then that is guessing what voters will do on election day.
Peace.
Looks like BJP and allies a.k.a the NDA will barely make the majority mark (272). That means cobbling up a coalition will require some new faces. These new faces will hold the key to India's forseeable political future. The TDP, currently a prominent member of the outgoing coalition, in Andhra Pradesh is heading towards disaster so at the moment the AIADMK (Jayalalitha) is the most prominent partner of the BJP. It is a little difficult to predict who the savior is going to be for the NDA coalition. Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party is a top candidate, in my opinion.
The most important number will be the raw strength the Congress party musters. If it hits the 150 mark on its own then it is a serious enough contender for the BJP to be really scared. By my analysis thus far I see them only gaining in strength from their dismal 114-seats vantage point. Dramatic gains in Andhra will help them. They will pick up single-digit seat gains in many other states as well.
I must end by saying that two more phases are still to go and if there is one thing to be weary of in a democracy then that is guessing what voters will do on election day.
Peace.
Archives
April 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004 August 2004 September 2004 October 2004 November 2004 December 2004 January 2005 March 2005 June 2005 July 2005 August 2005 September 2005 October 2005 November 2005 January 2006 March 2006 April 2006
