Samvaad: A Conversation
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Wednesday, April 28, 2004
Indian Elections - How does it look on April 28th, 2004
Looks like BJP and allies a.k.a the NDA will barely make the majority mark (272). That means cobbling up a coalition will require some new faces. These new faces will hold the key to India's forseeable political future. The TDP, currently a prominent member of the outgoing coalition, in Andhra Pradesh is heading towards disaster so at the moment the AIADMK (Jayalalitha) is the most prominent partner of the BJP. It is a little difficult to predict who the savior is going to be for the NDA coalition. Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party is a top candidate, in my opinion.
The most important number will be the raw strength the Congress party musters. If it hits the 150 mark on its own then it is a serious enough contender for the BJP to be really scared. By my analysis thus far I see them only gaining in strength from their dismal 114-seats vantage point. Dramatic gains in Andhra will help them. They will pick up single-digit seat gains in many other states as well.
I must end by saying that two more phases are still to go and if there is one thing to be weary of in a democracy then that is guessing what voters will do on election day.
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